Oil price, exchange rate and stock price in Nigeria : fresh insights based on quantile ARDL model

The passthrough of oil price to various macroeconomic aggregates, including the exchange rates and stock prices have been vigorously studied in the past albeit varying submissions. More so, these studies considered the relationship only within the conditional mean. To provide fresh insights about the heterogeneous impacts, this study reexamines the dynamic passthrough of international oil prices to exchange rates and stock prices in Nigeria using the Quantile ARDL model. The quantile ARDL accounts for locational asymmetries among variables. Findings indicate that the spillover effects of oil price shocks on both the exchange rate and stock prices in Nigeria are heterogeneous and differ significantly across the quantile distributions of the foreign exchange and stock markets. The impact increases over time with greater impacts recorded at quantiles below the median.

On this background, specific policies targeting the peculiar effects at each quantile of exchange rate and stock prices will ensure optimal performance leading to higher returns to investors and market practitioners. [Publisher's text].