Quattro scenari (e un cigno nero) nel futuro della post-democrazia

The scenarios, a future studies research method, do not predict the future but explore multiple possible futures, do not work on the most likely futures but create sets of possible futures. Thanks to these characteristics, the method is suitable for dealing with a complex theme such as the evolution of democracy in relation to digital communication technologies. The elaboration of the process, starting from a theoretical analysis, will lead to four scenarios (2018-2038) that will be described: e-democracy (greater participation in politics and acceptance of digital in democratic processes), Swiss model democracy (Greater participation and refusal of digital), representative democracy with evoting (less participation and acceptance of digital), representative democracy in crisis (lower participation and refusal of digital). In conclusion, some considerations will be made in terms of strategic directions. [Publisher's text].