Scenario planning, strategia e performance : evidenze empiriche in contesti complessi

This study embraces the scientific debate about the role that scenario planning tools play in the strategic planning process; moreover, this study also embraces the debate about how the use of scenarioplanning tools impacts financial performance in complex settings. More specifically, the paper aims to provide answers to the following research questions: a) Does the use of scenario planning tools in the strategic planning process affect firm performance? b) Does the environmental complexity generate a moderating effect on the relationship between the use of scenario planning tools and firm performance? The authors carried out the empirical analysis by examining data acquired through the administration of a closedquestion survey to 794 smallmedium manufacturing Italian firms that operate in complex environments.

Data analysis, carried out using statistical regression techniques, shows that: a) The use of scenario planning techniques in strategic planning processes generates a positive impact on firm performance; and b) the positive effect on firm performance that derives from the use of the scenario planning techniques is higher for firms that operate in an environment with a high level of intensity of change. [Publisher's text].